Executive Summary

Q1 2025 missed Street expectations as revenue of $787.6M and EPS of $1.86 came in below S&P Global consensus of $811.5M and $2.76, respectively, driven by sub-seasonal demand in March/April, weather disruptions in core Southern markets, and cost drag from network expansion . Consensus values marked with “*” come from S&P Global.
Operating ratio deteriorated to 91.1% (vs. 84.4% YoY; 87.1% in Q4), with management estimating weather added ~25–75 bps to OR; heavier weight per shipment and growth concentrated in ramping terminals increased handling/linehaul costs, pressuring margins .
2025 net capex guidance lowered to ~$650M from “over $700M” given in February, prioritizing real estate pacing while most equipment is already placed; leverage increased to support capex and working capital (Q1 cash $16.5M; total debt $295.5M) .
Management indicated no formal revenue/OR guidance; modeling assumes sub-seasonal trends persist near-term, implying ~89% OR run-rate in Q2 absent normalization—cost actions are “in flight,” but mix normalization and densification needed to recover margins .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Record first-quarter revenue, shipments, and tonnage; revenue +4.3% YoY to $787.6M, LTL shipments/workday +4.6%, LTL tonnage/workday +12.7% .
- Strong contractual renewals averaged 6.1%, reflecting service quality; weight per shipment up 7.8% YoY to 1,424 lbs, supporting revenue/shipment ex-fuel +2.3% .
- Strategic network build-out enabling national coverage; new markets (opened since 2022) drove shipment growth and customer acceptance, positioning for long-term share gains .
What Went Wrong
- Sub-seasonal demand: March shipments were “flat to February,” a ~25–$40M revenue impact; April tracking showed shipments down ~2% YoY (flattish adjusted for Good Friday) and tonnage +5% .
- Weather disruptions in dense Southern regions (Atlanta/Dallas/Houston) reduced productivity and added costs; weather impact estimated at ~25–75 bps to OR .
- Margin compression from expansion and mix: operating income down 40.5% YoY; depreciation +20.9% YoY from record equipment/real estate; purchased transportation and SWB delevered amid weaker legacy-market volumes and heavier, more cost-intensive freight in ramping markets .

Financial Results

Headline financials (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$842.103	$788.952	$787.575
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$125.171	$101.484	$70.168
Diluted EPS ($)	$3.46	$2.84	$1.86
Operating Ratio (%)	85.1%	87.1%	91.1%

Actual vs S&P Global consensus (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue Actual ($MM)	$842.103	$788.952	$787.575
Revenue Consensus* ($MM)	$839.883	$780.353	$811.527
Revenue Surprise (%)	+0.26%	+1.10%	-2.95%
EPS Actual ($)	$3.46	$2.84	$1.86
EPS Consensus* ($)	$3.53	$2.77	$2.76
EPS Surprise (%)	-2.0%	+2.4%	-32.6%

LTL operating KPIs (oldest → newest)

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Shipments per Workday	37.17	35.06	34.44
Tonnage per Workday	25.08	23.89	24.52
Revenue per CWT, ex-fuel ($)	$21.75	$21.96	$21.12
Revenue per Shipment, ex-fuel ($)	$293.39	$299.17	$300.76
Pounds per Shipment	1,349	1,362	1,424
Length of Haul (miles)	890	898	905

Quarter-specific callouts

Mix/pricing: Yield ex-fuel -5.1% YoY; total yield -5.8% YoY; heavier shipments typically depress yield; fuel surcharge 15.1% of revenue (flat YoY) .
Expense drivers: SWB +13.9% YoY (headcount +~8%, July 2024 wage +~4.1%, severe weather overtime); depreciation +20.9% YoY; purchased transportation +14% YoY .
Cash/Leverage: Cash $16.5M; total debt $295.5M vs $84.1M a year ago; revolver borrowings of $97M in Q1 .

Note: Consensus values marked with “*” are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Net Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	“Over $700M” (Feb 3, 2025)	“~$650M” (Apr 25, 2025)	Lowered
Revenue/OR/EPS	FY/2Q 2025	None provided	No formal guidance; management modeling assumes sub-seasonal trends; implied ~89% OR run-rate discussed for Q2 (not formal guidance)	N/A (directional commentary only)
Tax rate	FY 2025	N/A	Q1 tax rate 24% disclosed (not guidance)	N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Network expansion/national coverage	Aggressive terminal openings; achieved direct service to 48 states; customer acceptance improving	Newer markets drove shipment growth; many 2024 openings at/near breakeven in Q1; densification needed	Mixed: strategic positive, near-term profit drag
Mix/weight per shipment	Q3: mix headwinds; Q4: ex-fuel rev/cwt -2.3% YoY	Weight/shipment +7.8% YoY; yields down due to heavier mix; ex-fuel yield -5.1%	Heavier mix persists; yields pressured
Pricing discipline	Q3/Q4: pricing rational amid muted backdrop	Contract renewals +6.1%; management expects pricing to remain positive, not negative, but realization below headline due to mix/options	Stable to slightly softer realization
Demand/seasonality	Muted freight backdrop in 2H24	Sub-seasonal March; April shipments ~-2% YoY; tonnage +5%; customers cautious	Deteriorated vs typical seasonality
Weather impact	Seasonal variability noted historically	25–75 bps OR headwind from severe Southern storms affecting dense markets	Transitory headwind (Q1-specific)
Capex/capacity	2024 capex >$1B to build national network	2025 capex trimmed to ~$650M; industry capacity ample; SAIA ~25–30% internal capacity, not chasing volume	More disciplined pacing

Management Commentary

CEO on demand/weather: “We did not see the typical sequential growth in shipments through the quarter, with March shipments flat to February, causing our first quarter revenues to fall well below our expectations… winter weather in the southern part of the country prompted closures and limited operations in some of our most dense and most profitable regions.”
CEO on margin drivers: “The combination of lower than expected revenues, the impact from adverse weather events and labor and depreciation expenses related to our ongoing network expansion primarily drove our decline in operating income.”
CFO on yield/mix: “Yield, excluding fuel surcharge, declined by 5.1%… reflecting the inverse relationship between weight per shipment and yield as a heavier-weighted shipment typically drives a lower yield.”
CEO on near-term OR and planning: “We operated in March… right around 89%… that probably runs into Q2… we’re taking cost actions where we can.”
CEO on pricing backdrop: “I don’t see a situation where [pricing] turns negative… it just may not be what it has been at the same rates in the last number of years.”

Q&A Highlights

Sub-seasonal trends and OR: March sub-seasonal patterns persisted into April; management modeling assumes continued sub-seasonality with an implied ~89% OR run-rate in Q2 absent change; cost actions underway (labor hours, network optimization, directs) .
Pricing and realization: Contract renewals +6.1%, but realized pricing trails headline due to mix/customer options; management continues to push for fair pay-for-service while maintaining service quality .
Mix/weight per shipment: Heavier shipments are not fully margin-accretive given additional handling and the fact that growth is concentrated in ramping terminals with higher linehaul/handling cost and fewer directs .
Capex and leverage: 2025 capex cut mainly via real estate pacing; most equipment already in service; revolver usage peaked around Q2–Q3 then should trend down; depreciation to remain elevated on 2024 investments .
Capacity stance: SAIA estimates 25–30% internal capacity and will be disciplined—“not in the business of trying to fill the capacity” near-term; focusing on densification and directs to lower cost per shipment .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 results missed consensus: revenue $787.6M vs $811.5M*, EPS $1.86 vs $2.76*, with a ~33% EPS shortfall driven by sub-seasonal demand, weather, and cost/mix deleverage . Consensus values marked with “*” are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Prior quarters showed mixed outcomes: Q4 2024 beat on both revenue and EPS (revenue $789.0M vs $780.4M*; EPS $2.84 vs $2.77*), while Q3 2024 had a slight EPS miss despite a modest revenue beat (EPS $3.46 vs $3.53*; revenue $842.1M vs $839.9M*) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications for estimates: Street may reduce near-term revenue/EPS and margin assumptions to reflect sub-seasonality through April, heavier mix in ramping markets, elevated depreciation, and a slower densification trajectory; pricing still positive but realization constrained by mix/customer optionality .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term headwinds: Expect continued sub-seasonal demand and mix-driven yield pressure until legacy-market volumes normalize and directs increase; Q2 OR around high-80s if trends persist .
Structural positives intact: National footprint and service quality underpin long-term share gains; new markets currently breakeven should inflect as density/directs improve .
Pricing remains rational: Contract renewals positive; management does not expect industry-wide negative pricing despite capacity, but realization will be mix-dependent .
Capex discipline: 2025 capex lowered to ~$650M from >$700M; more selective on real estate as macro remains uncertain; depreciation to stay elevated near term .
Balance sheet: Higher revolver usage supports investment cadence; monitor leverage and working capital as volumes/mix evolve through 2025 .
Watch KPIs: Shipments/workday and tonnage/workday in legacy markets, yield ex-fuel, pounds/shipment, and progress on directs/linehaul efficiency are leading indicators for margin recovery .
Trading setup: Q1 miss and OR step-up are known; catalysts include evidence of seasonal normalization, improved legacy-market volumes, and densification driving yield/OR recovery; downside risk if sub-seasonality persists into late Q2/Q3 .

Additional references and data points

January/February LTL operating update showed strong YoY shipment/tonnage growth prior to March shortfall (Jan shipments +6.8%, tonnage +13.8%; Feb shipments +4.2%, tonnage +12.2%) .
Q4 2024 reference points: revenue $789.0M, OR 87.1%, EPS $2.84 .
Q3 2024 reference points: revenue $842.1M, OR 85.1%, EPS $3.46 .